If you ask a Behavioral guru to define accuracy this is what he will say. The difference in forecasted and actual is accuracy. According to fractal geometry, this is an incomplete information. It’s the degree that you are studying, which will define accuracy. Degree, meaning the time frame, multi month, multi week, multi day, multi hour etc. Accuracy on different time frames will be measured differently, and this is one huge gap in the subject of behavioral finance, as it does not define the concept of degree.
WAVES.INDIA studies intermediate (multi week) to minor degree (multi day) price trends. And in the last one year, we have made 13 intermediate forecasts and near 40 minor trend forecasts. We have measured accuracy on intermediate time forecasts. All our reports talk about levels and it’s the levels, which judge how accurate we are. We have pulled out the levels along with the trends and compared forecasted with actual. An average actual intermediate move was 23% large. The total absolute actual move on Sensex for the year (both up and down intermediate trends) was at 330%. WAVES.INDIA captured 240% of this total move. The market letter captured average 17% of the 23% move. This gives us an accuracy of 74% for the year. We have detailed out the reports, the dates, the Sensex levels and have tabulated all of them in a tracker.
Our preferred positive view was challenged during the week, as prices pushed below SENSEX 9,500 levels. Now prices have moved back up again. TICKS.INDIA members were updated with the SENSEX DAILY KEY REVERSAL on 29 DEC (SLIDE 1). We are back on preferred positive again. And immediate resistances are the open gaps lying at 9894 levels. Above this we have no doubt, regarding the first positive week in JAN 2009.Enjoy the latest WAVES.INDIA ACCURACY REPORT 2008.
Happy New Year
ORPHEUS INDIA RESEARCH
WAVES.IND. is a perspective product published on Monday and Wednesday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.
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