Accuracy is good, accuracy all year long is very good. But how will you define accuracy, if an emerging market leading Index generates a 250% net displacement in 12 multi week minor trends and closes the year at a 10% net gain?
Well you got to read our annual accuracy report 2007 for Romanian capital market to see what we delivered this year on Romanian leading market Index BETFI (Financial Market Index, Reuters RIC BETFI). We have reviewed a part of our 2007 forecasting work in the report. The report also carries a brief on the components of alternative research and a preview of all the reports that we create for the Romanian region.
2007 was an exceptional year for us in market forecasting for Romanian markets as we managed many correct calls across markets on BVB (Bucharest Stock Exchange) and RASDAQ (Mid cap and small Capitalised Stock Exhange now a part of the Bucharest Stock Exchange). Timing BETFI gave us a better grip on evolution of SIFs, which are the most liquid. Plus BETFI is a leading indicator for Romania, the very reason understanding BETFI helps understand the top BVB stocks.
We have made a complete case illustrating anticipated cases from the reports we published over the year and juxtaposing them with what actually happened. On a closing basis BETFI managed around 10% gain over the year. The total absolute price change over the 12 minor (few weeks) sessions was above 237%. We managed to accurately forecast 167% till November 07 low at BETFI 64400. This was an accuracy of 70%.
Merry Chirstmas and Happy Holidays